Analytics
Resolved Yes on 29 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.3%. Yes opened at 19% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 29 Dec 2025, the highest close was 96.3% on 29 Dec 2025 and the lowest 8% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 74 points up, to 81.5% on 28 Dec 2025. $108.62K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 30, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 29 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 19.0% |
| 29 Dec 2025 | 96.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.83K |
| TENETENET | No | 500 |
| wokerjoesleeper | No | 392.45 |
| JohnSweeney8040 | No | 369 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 22, 12:00 AM ET, and December 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-6pt5-or-above-earthquakes-by-december-28
| KyleDoyle6253 | No | 326 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 309 |
| ChristineMueller9039 | No | 260 |
| JamesBell1585 | No | 259 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 228 |
| 1ppq | No | 200 |
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