Latest trade
Feb 9, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 27, 4:18 PM UTC.
Analytics
karlfarngs is down $3.28K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 43 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-08-14 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Feb 9, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 27, 4:18 PM UTC.
$100 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 42 markets; 74.0% were buys. They run from Oct 14, 2025 UTC to Feb 9, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 728.55 | $0.347 | $120.58 | -$132.53 |
|
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.04K | $0.165 | $500 | Feb 9, 2026 UTC |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-08-14 21:27 UTC
Polymarket public position response
2 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-27 16:18 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-27 16:18 UTC
polymarket positions
44 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-08-14 21:27 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $2.84K and losing ones cost $879.41 across 43 settled positions. 83.7% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $434.21 on “Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?” (Yes); the largest loss, $255.95 on “Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 9 Feb 2026. It has traded 83 markets. Its open positions are worth $182.94 across 2 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 526.32 |
| $0.190 |
| $62.37 |
| -$37.63 |
| buy |
| 3.17K |
| $0.158 |
| $500 |
| Feb 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.42K | $0.146 | $500 | Feb 9, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 500 | $0.001 | $0.5 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 5?Up | buy | 36.36 | $0.550 | $20 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
 US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?No | buy | 255.54 | $0.391 | $100 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Yes | buy | 125 | $0.800 | $100 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?No | buy | 217.39 | $0.460 | $100 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)Yes | buy | 27.3 | $0.733 | $20 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?Yes | buy | 267.37 | $0.374 | $100 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
 SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes | buy | 135.14 | $0.740 | $100 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 109.89 | $0.910 | $100 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
 Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 209.1 | $0.478 | $100 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ETUp | buy | 65.2 | $0.300 | $19.56 | Feb 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 428.57 | $0.500 | $214.29 | Jan 4, 2026 UTC |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes | sell | 234.67 | $0.002 | $0.47 | Jan 2, 2026 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?Yes | buy | 208.77 | $0.479 | $100 | Dec 29, 2025 UTC |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 128.21 | $0.780 | $100 | Dec 13, 2025 UTC |
 Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 251.57 | $0.397 | $100 | Dec 13, 2025 UTC |
 Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026??Yes | buy | 760.14 | $0.132 | $100 | Nov 28, 2025 UTC |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 357.14 | $0.280 | $100 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 526.32 | $0.190 | $100 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Yes | buy | 344.83 | $0.290 | $100 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes | buy | 769.23 | $0.130 | $100 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes | buy | 502.58 | $0.398 | $200 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Nothing Ever Happens: NovemberYes | buy | 270.27 | $0.740 | $200 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.100 | $10 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No | sell | 259.74 | $0.986 | $256.1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?No | sell | 300 | $0.934 | $280.2 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?Yes | sell | 507 | $0.013 | $6.59 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No | sell | 500 | $0.984 | $492 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?Yes | buy | 69.94 | $0.630 | $44.06 | Oct 21, 2025 UTC |
| Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?Yes | buy | 30.06 | $0.630 | $18.94 | Oct 21, 2025 UTC |
 Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?No | sell | 114.97 | $0.962 | $110.6 | Oct 21, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.270 | $2.43 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.270 | $1.89 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.270 | $2.7 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?Yes | buy | 17 | $0.270 | $4.59 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.270 | $2.7 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.270 | $1.89 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.469 | $28.14 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
 Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?Yes | buy | 682.38 | $0.147 | $100 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
 Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31?No | buy | 131.58 | $0.760 | $100 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
 Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?Yes | sell | 446.4 | $0.670 | $299.09 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No | sell | 246.91 | $0.930 | $229.63 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?No | sell | 138.7 | $0.780 | $108.19 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
 Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?No | sell | 496.61 | $0.013 | $6.38 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
 US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?No | sell | 135.13 | $0.908 | $122.67 | Oct 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 159.44 | $0.340 | $54.21 | Oct 14, 2025 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 27.88 | $0.340 | $9.48 | Oct 14, 2025 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.