Analytics
Resolved No on 2 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 51% on 3 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 78 daily closes on record from 3 Feb 2026 to 2 May 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 57% on 4 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 19.5% on 30 Mar 2026. $782.6K traded over the market's life.
146 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 3, 12:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 3 Feb 2026 – 2 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | 51.0% |
| 2 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer EDB7 | Yes | 37.99K |
| Fantastic-Health | Yes | 27.69K |
| Deserted-Detainment | Yes | 19.75K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15
| Yes |
| 16.95K |
| ZemBoll | Yes | 3.01K |
| WSmovin | Yes | 2.74K |
| 0557 | Yes | 1.15K |
| ProfitMuhammedPBUH | Yes | 1.12K |
| andrynord | Yes | 1K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
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