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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will any AI score ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2 by November 3?Yes | buy | 286.67 | $0.059 | $17 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 306.85 |
| $0.033 |
| $10 |
| Sep 15, 2025 |
 Will Perplexity acquire Chrome in 2025?Yes | buy | 646.97 | $0.015 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.060 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.060 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 272.73 | $0.110 | $30 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes | buy | 454.55 | $0.022 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.020 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?Yes | buy | 344.44 | $0.090 | $31 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.060 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Will Israel strike Yemen on September 14 ET?Yes | buy | 1.09K | $0.009 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes | buy | 241.54 | $0.041 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?Yes | buy | 167.98 | $0.060 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?Yes | buy | 628.48 | $0.016 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 384.62 | $0.026 | $10 | Sep 15, 2025 |