Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 12 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 209 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2025 to 6 Nov 2025, the highest close was 34% on 23 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 22% on 28 May 2025. $125.8K traded over the market's life.
53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 209 points, 12 Apr 2025 – 6 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2025 | 28.5% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| S888 | Yes | 1.25K |
| 1725556298465 | Yes | 631.75 |
| Denvermore | Yes | 600 |
This is a market on predictions related to the advancements and implications of the second phase of the ARC AGI project.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-ai-score-on-arc-agi-2
| sundaysun | Yes | 595.62 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 558.19 |
| ThePureGenius | Yes | 503.98 |
| jim11 | Yes | 375.63 |
| Smooth-Website | Yes | 286.67 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 252.97 |
| rubberduck42 | Yes | 202 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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