Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 35.5% on 7 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 87 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 35.5% on 7 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 6% on 8 Aug 2025. $75.66K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 7 Aug 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2025 | 35.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 5.32K |
| Gusarich | Yes | 4.58K |
| ThePureGenius | Yes | 625 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any version of GPT-5 with a score greater than 40.00% by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-5-scores-above-40-on-humanitys-last-exam
| Yes |
| 545.55 |
| Cobalt Meteor 78C1 | Yes | 375 |
| nasos.pap | Yes | 351.56 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 218.97 |
| Smooth-Website | Yes | 166.67 |
| kuranes90 | Yes | 100 |
| Inorite | Yes | 83.33 |
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