Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 36.5% on 15 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 170 daily closes on record from 15 Apr 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 55.5% on 27 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 32.5% on 9 Aug 2025. $8.78M traded over the market's life.
580 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 170 points, 15 Apr 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2025 | 36.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Medium-Factor | Yes | 233.47K |
| whts | Yes | 177.74K |
| opulent | Yes | 61.31K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october
| buckwheat666 | Yes | 43.46K |
| wowi | Yes | 36.57K |
| kiwi-alex | Yes | 35K |
| vk7 | Yes | 31.58K |
| Known-Bratwurst | Yes | 29.93K |
| bogdanc1 | Yes | 29.24K |
| Adroit | Yes | 24.64K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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