Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 43% on 13 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 43% on 13 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 6.5% on 2 Sep 2025. $163.81K traded over the market's life.
54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 10:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 13 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | 43.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dearest-Aide | Yes | 10.71K |
| lalamba | Yes | 1.17K |
| Marcus177 | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| Yes |
| 802.15 |
| odili | Yes | 720.36 |
| zheca | Yes | 558.53 |
| Violent-Crisp | Yes | 544.66 |
| fullrandom | Yes | 500 |
| account47 | Yes | 500 |
| LuckyKaterina | Yes | 333.33 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by
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