Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 90.6 | $0.248 | $22.49 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 85.6 |
| $0.234 |
| $20.03 |
| Jun 20, 2026 |
 Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes | buy | 2.86K | $0.007 | $20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 85.6 | $0.234 | $20.04 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes | buy | 3.67K | $0.007 | $25 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 171.21 | $0.234 | $40 | Mar 10, 2026 |
 Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes | sell | 499.99 | $0.002 | $1 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes | sell | 2.75K | $0.002 | $5.55 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No | sell | 76.92 | $0.610 | $46.92 | Jan 19, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes | buy | 8.68K | $0.004 | $35 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.080 | $0.8 | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No | buy | 76.92 | $0.650 | $50 | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes | buy | 2.75K | $0.018 | $50 | Sep 26, 2025 |
 Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?Yes | sell | 102.38 | $0.999 | $102.28 | Jun 6, 2025 |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?Yes | buy | 35.71 | $0.420 | $15 | Jun 2, 2025 |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?Yes | buy | 66.67 | $0.600 | $40 | May 26, 2025 |
 Israel military action on Yemen before June?No | buy | 111.11 | $0.630 | $70 | May 26, 2025 |
 AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | sell | 22.4 | $0.110 | $2.46 | May 23, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?Yes | buy | 140.28 | $0.107 | $15 | May 23, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.180 | $30 | May 23, 2025 |
 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?Yes | sell | 60.6 | $0.090 | $5.45 | May 23, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever HappensNo | sell | 142 | $0.100 | $14.2 | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Nothing Ever HappensNo | buy | 142.67 | $0.140 | $20 | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?Yes | buy | 60.61 | $0.330 | $20 | Apr 21, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 66.67 | $0.300 | $20 | Apr 17, 2025 |
 Trump positive favorability on Day 100?Yes | sell | 80 | $0.009 | $0.73 | Apr 15, 2025 |
 Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 428.57 | $0.070 | $30 | Mar 13, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 199.21 | $0.100 | $20 | Feb 25, 2025 |
 Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Yes | sell | 58.81 | $0.001 | $0.06 | Feb 23, 2025 |
 Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?Yes | buy | 172.04 | $0.093 | $16 | Feb 18, 2025 |
 Will o3-mini be better than DeepSeek before March?Yes | sell | 79.7 | $0.049 | $3.94 | Feb 18, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 0.8 | $0.882 | $0.71 | Feb 18, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 326 | $0.882 | $287.53 | Feb 18, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 23.81 | $0.630 | $15 | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 58.82 | $0.170 | $10 | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 286.55 | $0.035 | $10 | Feb 11, 2025 |
 Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 60.9 | $0.460 | $28.01 | Feb 11, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 326.85 | $0.046 | $15 | Feb 11, 2025 |
 Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 42.85 | $0.583 | $25 | Feb 11, 2025 |
| Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 60.98 | $0.410 | $25 | Feb 11, 2025 |
| Trump positive favorability on Day 100?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.250 | $20 | Feb 11, 2025 |
 Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?No | buy | 11.11 | $0.270 | $3 | Feb 8, 2025 |
| Will o3-mini be better than DeepSeek before March?Yes | buy | 34.67 | $0.144 | $5 | Feb 8, 2025 |
| Will o3-mini be better than DeepSeek before March?Yes | buy | 45.07 | $0.111 | $5 | Feb 8, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 4.76 | $0.630 | $3 | Feb 3, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 6.35 | $0.630 | $4 | Feb 3, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 11.29 | $0.620 | $7 | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 602.4 | $0.025 | $15 | Feb 3, 2025 |