Will o3-mini be better than DeepSeek before March?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$31.2K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 83.5% on 1 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2025 to 1 Mar 2025, the highest close was 86% on 4 Feb 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 60 points down, to 16% on 7 Feb 2025. $31.16K traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 3:26 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 1 Feb 2025 – 1 Mar 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Feb 2025	83.5%
1 Mar 2025	1.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
BabyYoda12	Yes	999.99
NRXO519	Yes	699
golergka	Yes	83.33
Tremoramore	Yes	24.69

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI o3-mini model has a higher arena score than all DeepSeek models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by February 28, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All OpenAI o3-mini models will count (i.e. o3-mini and o3-mini-high both count). If any of them is higher than DeepSeek it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best DeepSeek arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.