Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 15 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 106 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 48.5% on 15 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 25 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 31.5% on 16 Jan 2025. $327.82K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 106 points, 15 Jan 2025 – 30 Apr 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2025 | 48.5% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 1.88K |
| subsomatik | Yes | 1.05K |
| bettodie | Yes | 524.6 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s favorable rating according to RealClearPolitics is higher than his unfavorable rating on April 29, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating for a “Yes” resolution; ties will not qualify. The resolution source will be RealClearPolitics’ Favorability Ratings poll aggregator, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders, specifically the RCP average under the column labeled "Spread" checked at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the resolution date. The listed value as of the check time will be used to resolve this market regardless of the listed date range. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolitics calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.8%, -3.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-positive-favorability-on-day-100
| Yes |
| 450 |
| Chmac | Yes | 430.37 |
| Triky | Yes | 100 |
| kaleidoscope | Yes | 90.91 |
| 555777 | Yes | 77.69 |
| Bo777 | Yes | 61.67 |
| ChHa22 | Yes | 60.61 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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