Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 63% on 28 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 99.7% on 1 May 2025 and the lowest 36% on 1 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 73.5% on 5 Apr 2025. $1.06M traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 28 Mar 2025 – 1 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2025 | 63.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| soicowboy | No | 7.87K |
| 1111111123 | No | 1.86K |
| Opi | No | 1.16K |
| Astriod53 | No | 705.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: -Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire -Yoon Suk Yeol is reinstated as President of South Korea -Pete Hegseth resigns or otherwise ceases to be Secretary of Defense -Erdoğan resigns or otherwise ceases to be President of Turkey -Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+2.png
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-before-may
| Victor2712 | No | 521.32 |
| RadioSoap | Yes | 417.02 |
| Milnerbeast | No | 400 |
| Exanimo99 | No | 237.5 |
| Hearty-Skullcap | No | 200 |
| Nudrig | No | 110 |
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