Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$6.8M

Resolved

Settled

Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 4.3% on 19 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 86 daily closes on record from 19 Dec 2024 to 14 Mar 2025, the highest close was 27.6% on 2 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 0.1% on 24 Feb 2025. $6.81M traded over the market's life.

539 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 2:11 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 86 points, 19 Dec 2024 – 14 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.01M
bobtschigerillo999	Yes	608.79K
01010101	Yes	144.63K

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD, Alternative für Deutschland) wins between 25% (inclusive) and 30% (inclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).