Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 6.08 | $0.890 | $5.41 | Feb 24, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 6.09 |
| $0.900 |
| $5.48 |
| Feb 20, 2026 |
 Major CEX insolvent in 2026?No | sell | 7.1 | $0.890 | $6.32 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.880 | $6.25 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No | buy | 6.23 | $0.966 | $6.02 | Jan 13, 2026 |
 U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?No | buy | 1.07 | $0.999 | $1.07 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 US forces in Venezuela by December 31?No | buy | 3.21 | $0.959 | $3.08 | Dec 15, 2025 |
 Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?No | buy | 2.12 | $0.984 | $2.09 | Dec 13, 2025 |
 HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes | buy | 5.07 | $0.992 | $5.03 | Dec 10, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Pocahontas" this week (November 24–30)?No | buy | 5.68 | $0.891 | $5.06 | Nov 24, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No | buy | 1.58 | $0.970 | $1.53 | Oct 31, 2025 |
 Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No | buy | 1.74 | $0.870 | $1.51 | Oct 29, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No | sell | 1.98 | $0.977 | $1.93 | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No | buy | 1.98 | $0.838 | $1.66 | Oct 23, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?Yes | buy | 1.44 | $0.996 | $1.43 | Oct 15, 2025 |
 Will Warren Buffett be richest person on October 31?No | buy | 3.37 | $0.999 | $3.37 | Oct 15, 2025 |
 Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?Yes | buy | 4.18 | $0.993 | $4.15 | Oct 9, 2025 |
 Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?No | buy | 4.68 | $0.999 | $4.68 | Oct 6, 2025 |
 Will Israel strike Turkey by September 30?No | buy | 1.9 | $0.999 | $1.9 | Sep 30, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration by September 30?No | buy | 2.09 | $0.997 | $2.08 | Sep 26, 2025 |
 Megaquake by August 31?No | buy | 15.22 | $0.998 | $15.19 | Aug 31, 2025 |
 Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?Yes | buy | 25.27 | $0.999 | $25.24 | Aug 26, 2025 |
 Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23?No | buy | 37.69 | $0.998 | $37.61 | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?Yes | buy | 12.79 | $0.996 | $12.74 | Aug 18, 2025 |
 Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?Yes | buy | 30.61 | $0.999 | $30.58 | Aug 14, 2025 |
 Pakistan strike on India by Friday?No | buy | 27.91 | $0.999 | $27.88 | Aug 9, 2025 |
 Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes | buy | 23.9 | $0.988 | $23.61 | Aug 6, 2025 |
 Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?No | buy | 1.95 | $0.998 | $1.95 | Aug 1, 2025 |
 Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case by July 31?No | buy | 1.21 | $0.998 | $1.21 | Aug 1, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before August?No | buy | 1.62 | $0.997 | $1.62 | Aug 1, 2025 |
 Yoon out of custody by July 31?No | buy | 2.9 | $0.999 | $2.9 | Jul 31, 2025 |
 Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before August?No | buy | 2.28 | $0.999 | $2.28 | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?No | buy | 30.47 | $0.611 | $18.62 | Jul 28, 2025 |
 Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?No | buy | 17.42 | $0.999 | $17.4 | Jul 24, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?No | buy | 20.74 | $0.998 | $20.7 | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?Yes | buy | 8.35 | $0.993 | $8.29 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?Yes | buy | 11.1 | $0.992 | $11.01 | Jul 20, 2025 |
 Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July?No | sell | 19.45 | $0.998 | $19.41 | Jul 18, 2025 |
 U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?Yes | buy | 3.1 | $0.999 | $3.1 | Jul 18, 2025 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July?No | buy | 19.46 | $0.998 | $19.42 | Jul 17, 2025 |
 Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch?No | buy | 11.14 | $0.973 | $10.84 | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes | buy | 10.55 | $0.966 | $10.19 | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14?Yes | buy | 3.86 | $0.986 | $3.81 | Jul 13, 2025 |
| Will Pump.fun launch a token by September 30?Yes | buy | 17.17 | $0.999 | $17.15 | Jul 12, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No | sell | 4.44 | $0.990 | $4.4 | Jul 11, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?No | buy | 1.42 | $0.988 | $1.4 | Jul 11, 2025 |
 US x Iran ceasefire before August?No | buy | 2.14 | $0.990 | $2.12 | Jul 11, 2025 |
 Will Elon call Trump a "pedophile" by Friday?No | buy | 12.19 | $0.999 | $12.18 | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No | buy | 4.44 | $0.993 | $4.41 | Jul 4, 2025 |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30?No | buy | 1.4 | $0.997 | $1.4 | Jun 23, 2025 |