Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 12 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 6 Feb 2026.
Across the 245 daily closes on record from 6 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14.5% on 6 Feb 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.2%; a month before, 3.1%.
$88.71 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $137.45K since listing. The order book holds $18.03K, with a 0.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.06K bought Yes and $17.67K bought No; the largest was a $2.86K sell of No at 88.0¢.
The largest Yes position is ArmageddonRewardsBilly with 7.7K shares; the largest No position is elmcap2 with 8.4K. Ten wallets hold 75.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 245 points, 6 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | 14.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| elmcap2 | No | 8.41K |
| Anjun | No | 8.07K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 7.69K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/major-cex-insolvent-in-2026
| Wojtek |
| Yes |
| 3.18K |
| tychia | Yes | 2K |
| viduraniti | Yes | 1.83K |
| enrico-vasaio | Yes | 1.5K |
| pisyandriy | Yes | 1.32K |
| Rapid Maven 2EF4 | No | 1.24K |
| SongXiaoFeng | No | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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