Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 3.6% on 8 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 3.6% on 8 Jul 2025 and the low 0.1% on 12 Jul 2025. $108.05K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 12:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 8 Jul 2025 – 12 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | 3.6% |
| 12 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| alternativelog | Yes | 5.15K |
| Bold Pulse EA15 | Yes | 2.89K |
| Pamotyla1 | Yes | 1K |
| iekaieme | Yes | 799.96 |
| shabbousguoy | Yes | 750 |
| Kidde12 | Yes | 500 |
| MoeLester69 | Yes | 500 |
| alwaysrightneverwrong | Yes | 464.6 |
| Vojo | Yes | 428.33 |
| Cyberdonkey | Yes | 333.33 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly refers to Donald Trump as a "pedophile" between July 7, 2025, 6:00 PM ET and July 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Comments that merely insinuate or imply that Trump is a pedophile—without explicitly using the term—will not qualify. For example, the post at https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942132189229162960 would not qualify. Musk must use the word "pedophile" or a direct variant such as "pedo" or "pedophilic" in reference to Donald Trump. A direct reference will qualify even if Trump is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear he is the subject. Describing Trump as a pedophile without using one of the qualifying terms will not count. Statements such as “I would not refer to Trump as a pedophile” or “I have never called Trump a pedophile” will not qualify, as they do not constitute a direct usage of the qualifying terms in reference to Trump. Any written or verbal usage will qualify. The resolution source will be public statements from Elon Musk.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-elon-call-trump-a-pedophile-by-friday
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