Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?Yes | buy | 184.87 | $0.541 | $100 | Sep 27, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 72.29 |
| $0.830 |
| $60 |
| Sep 27, 2025 |
 Will Meta settle with the FTC?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.700 | $10 | May 18, 2025 |
 Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 277.78 | $0.036 | $10 | Apr 5, 2025 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 555.56 | $0.036 | $20 | Apr 5, 2025 |
 Will Meta buy TikTok?No | buy | 718.02 | $0.975 | $700 | Apr 5, 2025 |
 Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April?No | buy | 231.59 | $0.890 | $206.15 | Mar 15, 2025 |
| Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April?No | buy | 837.23 | $0.948 | $794 | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April?Yes | sell | 79.36 | $0.083 | $6.55 | Mar 14, 2025 |
 Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Yes | sell | 83.21 | $0.290 | $24.13 | Feb 18, 2025 |
 Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?Yes | buy | 47.27 | $0.481 | $22.73 | Jan 22, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week?Yes | sell | 107.61 | $0.022 | $2.33 | Jan 22, 2025 |
 Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?Yes | buy | 544.86 | $0.037 | $20 | Jan 22, 2025 |
| Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?Yes | buy | 69.31 | $0.870 | $60.3 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?Yes | buy | 116.33 | $0.851 | $99 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 41.04 | $0.731 | $30 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 27 | $0.066 | $1.79 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 144.84 | $0.138 | $20 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?Yes | sell | 55 | $0.569 | $31.31 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Will Biden pardon SBF?No | sell | 180.14 | $0.998 | $179.78 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Yes | buy | 13.39 | $0.360 | $4.82 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week?Yes | buy | 107.61 | $0.650 | $70 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?Yes | buy | 90.91 | $0.440 | $40 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 75.76 | $0.660 | $50 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?No | buy | 60 | $0.180 | $10.8 | Jan 18, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?Yes | buy | 51.72 | $0.580 | $30 | Jan 16, 2025 |
 Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?No | buy | 39.59 | $0.758 | $30 | Jan 16, 2025 |
 Trump transgender executive order on Day 1?Yes | buy | 50.33 | $0.596 | $30 | Jan 16, 2025 |
 Solana above $190 on January 17?No | buy | 54.55 | $0.550 | $30 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Ripple above $2.40 on January 17?No | sell | 60 | $0.210 | $12.6 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April?Yes | buy | 79.37 | $0.630 | $50 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Solana above $190 on January 17?No | buy | 20 | $0.730 | $14.6 | Jan 13, 2025 |
 Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?Yes | buy | 51.72 | $0.580 | $30 | Dec 28, 2024 |
 Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024?No | buy | 60.02 | $0.833 | $50 | Dec 28, 2024 |
| Will Biden pardon SBF?No | buy | 179.18 | $0.935 | $167.53 | Dec 24, 2024 |
 Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?No | sell | 168.37 | $0.995 | $167.53 | Dec 24, 2024 |
 Ripple above $2.20 on December 27?Yes | buy | 15.26 | $0.730 | $11.14 | Dec 24, 2024 |
 Dogecoin above $0.30 on December 27?No | sell | 40.81 | $0.150 | $6.12 | Dec 24, 2024 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.170 | $5 | Dec 24, 2024 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December?Yes | buy | 47.62 | $0.210 | $10 | Dec 24, 2024 |
| Will Biden pardon SBF?No | buy | 0.97 | $0.919 | $0.89 | Dec 23, 2024 |
| Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?No | buy | 168.38 | $0.986 | $166.02 | Dec 23, 2024 |
 New Jersey mystery drones from foreign country?No | sell | 170.45 | $0.979 | $166.92 | Dec 23, 2024 |
 Will 'Elden Ring' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards?No | buy | 55.21 | $0.900 | $49.69 | Dec 23, 2024 |
 Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration?No | sell | 66.25 | $0.750 | $49.69 | Dec 23, 2024 |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration?No | buy | 66.25 | $0.480 | $31.8 | Dec 23, 2024 |
| Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27?No | buy | 50.85 | $0.590 | $30 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Ripple above $2.20 on December 27?No | buy | 40 | $0.500 | $20 | Dec 22, 2024 |
 Will Kendrick Lamar be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No | buy | 33.67 | $0.891 | $30 | Dec 22, 2024 |
 Will someone else be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.010 | $3 | Dec 22, 2024 |