Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 12 Mar 2025. Before it settled, the high was 31.5% on 12 Mar 2025 and the low 0.1% on 28 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 5% on 13 Mar 2025. $465.89K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 50 points · 12 Mar 2025 – 30 Apr 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2025 | 31.5% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 171.47K |
| Agilord | Yes | 16.96K |
| sakurajima | Yes | 7.3K |
| Leoandlibe | Yes | 5.69K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april
| ah36 | Yes | 2.95K |
| Siziriv | Yes | 1.53K |
| MrGrinche | Yes | 1.47K |
| aped | Yes | 1.26K |
| tacas | Yes | 1K |
| sergeycirov | Yes | 507.77 |
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