Latest trade
Oct 8, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 8:17 AM UTC.
Analytics
NearlyCertain is down $70.63 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 17 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-07-31 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 8, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 8:17 AM UTC.
$57.64 median trade
Its latest 49 trades covered 22 markets; 55.1% were buys. They run from Mar 11, 2026 UTC to Oct 8, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | No | 2.6 | $0.960 | $2.49 | -$0.01 |
 China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 2.13 | $0.940 | $2 | 16d ago |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-07-31 02:16 UTC
Polymarket public position response
2 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-24 08:17 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
49 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-24 08:17 UTC
polymarket positions
18 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-07-31 02:16 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $208.39 and losing ones cost $25.88 across 17 settled positions. 58.8% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $71.78 on “Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?” (Yes); the largest loss, $19.35 on “Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?” (No).
Its most recent trade on record was on 8 Oct 2026. It has traded 22 markets. Its open positions are worth $4.49 across 2 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 2.13 |
| $0.940 |
| $2 |
| $0 |
| buy |
| 2.6 |
| $0.960 |
| $2.5 |
| Sep 18, 2026 UTC |
 Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?No | sell | 460 | $0.967 | $444.82 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?No | buy | 460 | $0.966 | $444.36 | Jul 31, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?No | sell | 450 | $0.960 | $432 | Jun 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?No | buy | 450 | $0.950 | $427.5 | Jun 30, 2026 UTC |
 Spread: SD Eibar (-1.5)CD Castellón | buy | 518 | $0.940 | $486.92 | May 31, 2026 UTC |
 Modi out by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 520 | $0.941 | $489.32 | May 31, 2026 UTC |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 520 | $0.932 | $484.64 | May 31, 2026 UTC |
| Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5)Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa | buy | 485 | $0.910 | $441.35 | May 30, 2026 UTC |
 Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?No | sell | 495 | $0.890 | $440.55 | May 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?No | buy | 495 | $0.890 | $440.55 | May 30, 2026 UTC |
 Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)Stade Brestois 29 | buy | 465.99 | $0.930 | $433.37 | May 13, 2026 UTC |
 Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?No | sell | 470 | $0.930 | $437.1 | May 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?No | buy | 470 | $0.970 | $455.9 | May 13, 2026 UTC |
 Spread: Elche CF (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié | buy | 450 | $0.983 | $442.35 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
 Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?No | sell | 474 | $0.945 | $447.93 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 474 | $0.954 | $452.2 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
 Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May?Yes | sell | 150 | $0.500 | $75 | May 7, 2026 UTC |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.500 | $75 | May 4, 2026 UTC |
 Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace | buy | 393 | $0.100 | $39.3 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace | buy | 458 | $0.100 | $45.8 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
 Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | sell | 242 | $0.102 | $24.68 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.102 | $5.1 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.105 | $4.2 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | sell | 70 | $0.105 | $7.35 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.105 | $5.25 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.105 | $4.2 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | sell | 26 | $0.102 | $2.65 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | sell | 419 | $0.145 | $60.75 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | buy | 454 | $0.041 | $18.61 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes | buy | 483 | $0.041 | $19.8 | Apr 30, 2026 UTC |
 Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Riyadh Saudi Club | buy | 446 | $0.060 | $26.76 | Apr 29, 2026 UTC |
| Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Riyadh Saudi Club | buy | 437 | $0.060 | $26.22 | Apr 29, 2026 UTC |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 15 | $0.025 | $0.38 | Apr 29, 2026 UTC |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 430 | $0.026 | $11.18 | Apr 29, 2026 UTC |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 420 | $0.026 | $10.92 | Apr 29, 2026 UTC |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 420 | $0.026 | $10.92 | Apr 29, 2026 UTC |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 445 | $0.026 | $11.57 | Apr 29, 2026 UTC |
| Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5)Elche CF | buy | 339 | $0.951 | $322.39 | Apr 11, 2026 UTC |
| Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés | sell | 6 | $0.010 | $0.06 | Apr 11, 2026 UTC |
| Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés | buy | 6 | $0.029 | $0.17 | Apr 11, 2026 UTC |
 Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?No | sell | 28 | $0.974 | $27.27 | Apr 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?No | sell | 304 | $0.974 | $296.1 | Apr 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?No | buy | 332 | $0.973 | $323.04 | Apr 11, 2026 UTC |
 Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Asia Championships Closed Qualifier PlayoffsMorningstar | buy | 261 | $0.220 | $57.42 | Mar 11, 2026 UTC |
| Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Asia Championships Closed Qualifier PlayoffsMorningstar | buy | 262 | $0.220 | $57.64 | Mar 11, 2026 UTC |
 Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?No | sell | 213 | $0.931 | $198.3 | Mar 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?No | buy | 213 | $0.941 | $200.43 | Mar 11, 2026 UTC |
2 of 4 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed 1m ago. Watch only — not advice.