Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 1 Jun 2026, the highest close was 7.5% on 22 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.6 points up, to 7.3% on 24 May 2026. $1.54M traded over the market's life.
199 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 1 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 7.5% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 99problems123 | Yes | 7.06K |
| TheVeiledOne | Yes | 5.99K |
| tradingdecs | Yes | 5.06K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by
| PhongLeXBT | Yes | 3.66K |
| Shady-Sunroom | Yes | 2.28K |
| Blaring-Backdrop | Yes | 2.24K |
| LukeDelta | Yes | 2K |
| 4i1V2b6d7o3l8r | Yes | 2K |
| Bold Meteor 59D5 | Yes | 1.85K |
| Geckowolf | Yes | 1.82K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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