Analytics
Yes is at 43%, up 25 points from 18.5% when the market opened on 6 Oct 2026.
Across the 18 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36.5% on 7 Oct 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 6 Oct 2026. The current quote, 43%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 32.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 33.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 36.5% on 7 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?”.
$287.31 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $65.33K since listing. The order book holds $1.12K, with a 10.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 73 trades, $10.82K bought Yes and $458.44 bought No; the largest was a $4.05K buy of Yes at 34.0¢.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 162 shares; the largest No position is crypto-basenji with 111. Ten wallets hold 87.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 32.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 161.54 |
| Fickle-Halt-Window | Yes | 146.58 |
| fuckpolymarket | Yes | 135.14 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by
| crypto-basenji | No | 111.34 |
| Basilomo | No | 75 |
| Mithrandiric | No | 60 |
| Sale2723 | No | 57.88 |
| Haradwaith | No | 46.35 |
| niluu | Yes | 28.57 |
| AMAM13 | No | 21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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