Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No | sell | 8.53 | $0.700 | $5.97 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 7.77 |
| $0.910 |
| $7.07 |
| Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | sell | 20.74 | $0.940 | $19.5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04?Yes | buy | 7.69 | $0.520 | $4 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04?Yes | buy | 18.84 | $0.690 | $13 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04?Yes | buy | 13.33 | $0.450 | $6 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04?Yes | buy | 11.63 | $0.430 | $5 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 11.17 | $0.985 | $11 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27?Down | buy | 5.43 | $0.920 | $5 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 10.47 | $0.860 | $9 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No | buy | 6.33 | $0.790 | $5 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?No | buy | 7.89 | $0.760 | $6 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27?Down | buy | 7.61 | $0.920 | $7 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No | buy | 8.54 | $0.820 | $7 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No | buy | 7.78 | $0.900 | $7 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | buy | 9.64 | $0.830 | $8 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 14.63 | $0.820 | $12 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | buy | 11.11 | $0.900 | $10 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?No | buy | 8.59 | $0.931 | $8 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?No | buy | 12.22 | $0.900 | $11 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 7.14 | $0.840 | $6 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 7.14 | $0.840 | $6 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?No | buy | 10.64 | $0.940 | $10 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 21?Up | buy | 7.16 | $0.977 | $7 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 No airdrop in 2025?No | buy | 9.27 | $0.863 | $8 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes | buy | 12.94 | $0.850 | $11 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?No | buy | 13.16 | $0.988 | $13 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?No | buy | 16 | $0.997 | $15.95 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 11.11 | $0.900 | $10 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes | buy | 10.08 | $0.794 | $8 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30?Yes | buy | 9.13 | $0.986 | $9 | Nov 10, 2025 |
 Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?No | buy | 11.58 | $0.950 | $11 | Nov 10, 2025 |
 Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?No | buy | 8.99 | $0.890 | $8 | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | buy | 7.2 | $0.972 | $7 | Nov 10, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Syria President events on November 10?No | buy | 8.16 | $0.980 | $8 | Nov 10, 2025 |
 Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No | buy | 7.16 | $0.977 | $7 | Nov 10, 2025 |
 Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Yes | buy | 7.06 | $0.992 | $7 | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Yes | buy | 8.06 | $0.992 | $8 | Oct 10, 2025 |
 Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?No | buy | 7.53 | $0.929 | $7 | Oct 10, 2025 |
 Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.980 | $14 | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 12.24 | $0.980 | $12 | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?No | buy | 12.92 | $0.929 | $12 | Oct 10, 2025 |
 Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on October 10?No | buy | 6.06 | $0.990 | $6 | Oct 10, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?No | buy | 12.01 | $0.999 | $12 | Sep 16, 2025 |
 Will Israel strike Yemen on September 16 ET?Yes | buy | 8.04 | $0.995 | $8 | Sep 16, 2025 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 8AM ETUp | buy | 4.65 | $0.860 | $4 | Sep 16, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?No | buy | 9.09 | $0.880 | $8 | Sep 16, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced by September 30?No | buy | 7.41 | $0.810 | $6 | Sep 16, 2025 |
 Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes | buy | 7.5 | $0.800 | $6 | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes | buy | 7.27 | $0.963 | $7 | Sep 16, 2025 |