Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 37% on 4 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 37% on 4 Oct 2025 and the low 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 13.5% on 5 Oct 2025. $1.94M traded over the market's life.
361 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 91 points · 4 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2025 | 37.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HypeBoy | Yes | 50K |
| Roshtyyl | Yes | 36.15K |
| ImanedePumpFun | Yes | 11.83K |
| Sophisticated-Bitter | Yes | 9.05K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-in-2025
| Genuine-Ecliptic | Yes | 7.54K |
| aean0x | Yes | 7.47K |
| -BLE55- | Yes | 5.98K |
| Cactusman77 | Yes | 5K |
| NeverEverBettingOnSportsAgain | Yes | 5K |
| polymorpher-accumulator | Yes | 3K |
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