Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 3 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 33.3% on 28 Jun 2025 and the low 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 28.3% on 27 Jun 2025. $679.45K traded over the market's life.
122 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 214 points, 3 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jun 2025 | 22.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| satoshiAncap | Yes | 273.44K |
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 2.94K |
| bigbadboybob | Yes | 1K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-in-2025
| Amatzia | Yes | 816.22 |
| Vulcan1 | Yes | 748.31 |
| WhatTheHelly | Yes | 624.93 |
| Kingjusti | Yes | 612.18 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 438.81 |
| shlomkedamari | Yes | 387.33 |
| vshaped | Yes | 339.8 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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