Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 76.5% on 17 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 3 Jan 2026 and the low 52% on 24 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 80.5% on 13 Dec 2025. $55.06M traded over the market's life.
815 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 49 points · 17 Nov 2025 – 3 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Nov 2025 | 76.5% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $1,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch
| gatabata | No | 219.39K |
| tagdeus | No | 216.88K |
| fsdfdsfsadsasa | No | 209.19K |
| bioo | No | 197.27K |
| Jaded-Stepdaughter | No | 195.39K |
| cheifkeefslammer | No | 150K |
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