Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 1.5K | $0.660 | $772.5 | -$217.5 |
 Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No | sell | 647.5 | $0.664 | $429.99 | Jul 24, 2026 |
|
Crisp-Ephemera is a public Polymarket wallet indexed by Vultax, ranked #36,398 in the Observed 80K cohort. As of the latest observation the record shows +$3.31K observed lifetime PnL, 34 distinct markets, 28 resolved positions, a 64.3% win rate on resolved positions.
Rank, total PnL and observed volume come from one accepted snapshot of Polymarket's public leaderboard, so they are consistent with each other and with every other profile in the cohort. Open positions, the chart and recent trades are separate live observations with their own timestamps. A figure Vultax could not observe is left out rather than shown as zero, and nothing on this page is investment advice or a return forecast.
Public profile: polymarket.com/profile/0x3beed9f022951bc57855a80ba497e70c1868501c
Nine stops, one per figure. Each says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads for this wallet in the accepted snapshot.
Position in Vultax's Observed 80K cohort: 80,000 public Polymarket wallets ordered by observed lifetime profit in one accepted leaderboard snapshot. A rank is only comparable inside that snapshot.
Observed lifetime profit and loss for the wallet, realized and unrealized combined, as reported in the accepted snapshot. It is a record of what happened, not a forecast of what comes next.
| No |
| 790.31 |
| $0.596 |
| $501.85 |
| +$30.76 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 647.5 | $0.629 | $472.68 | +$65.18 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 946.32 | $0.617 | $416.38 | -$167.64 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 266.1 | $0.674 | $230.17 | +$50.84 |
 Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 1.02K | $0.519 | $142.82 | -$387.18 |
 Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 156.56 | $0.580 | $100.98 | +$10.18 |
| sell |
| 1.17K |
| $0.710 |
| $830.14 |
| Jul 24, 2026 |
 Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | sell | 767.66 | $0.698 | $535.86 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | sell | 1.53K | $0.790 | $1.21K | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Yes | sell | 1.7K | $0.870 | $1.48K | Jun 15, 2026 |
 SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes | buy | 16.66K | $0.900 | $14.99K | Jun 12, 2026 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes | buy | 243.47 | $0.780 | $189.91 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes | buy | 2.1K | $0.880 | $1.85K | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?No | sell | 107 | $0.240 | $25.68 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?No | sell | 3K | $0.240 | $720 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?No | sell | 250 | $0.240 | $60 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.460 | $2.3 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 285.66 | $0.470 | $134.26 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?No | buy | 620 | $0.530 | $328.6 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?No | buy | 987 | $0.500 | $493.5 | Mar 29, 2026 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No | buy | 15 | $0.640 | $9.6 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No | buy | 250 | $0.650 | $162.5 | Mar 18, 2026 |
 StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No | sell | 476.81 | $0.900 | $429.13 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?No | buy | 53.2 | $0.580 | $30.86 | Mar 16, 2026 |
 LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsJD Gaming | sell | 140 | $0.390 | $54.6 | Mar 8, 2026 |
 Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.180 | $10.8 | Mar 8, 2026 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | buy | 91 | $0.690 | $62.79 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | buy | 39.28 | $0.640 | $25.14 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | buy | 329 | $0.700 | $230.3 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?No | buy | 475 | $0.370 | $175.75 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?No | buy | 100 | $0.370 | $37 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | buy | 114.99 | $0.590 | $67.84 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | buy | 230.05 | $0.580 | $133.43 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | buy | 567.04 | $0.470 | $266.51 | Jan 30, 2026 |
 USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 274.1 | $0.470 | $128.83 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes | buy | 274.1 | $0.558 | $153.04 | Dec 20, 2025 |
 MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?No | buy | 191.95 | $0.420 | $80.62 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No | sell | 83.54 | $0.965 | $80.62 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No | buy | 416.16 | $0.445 | $185.27 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No | buy | 83.55 | $0.910 | $76.03 | Nov 30, 2025 |
 Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?Yes | sell | 117.72 | $0.646 | $76.02 | Nov 30, 2025 |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?Yes | buy | 117.73 | $0.920 | $108.31 | Nov 22, 2025 |
 Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?Yes | buy | 17.74 | $0.270 | $4.79 | Oct 19, 2025 |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?Yes | buy | 18.4 | $0.630 | $11.59 | Oct 19, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September?No | buy | 16.38 | $0.890 | $14.58 | Sep 25, 2025 |
 Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?No | buy | 14.58 | $0.975 | $14.22 | Jun 22, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?No | sell | 13.82 | $0.983 | $13.59 | Jun 22, 2025 |
 Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?Yes | buy | 45.45 | $0.022 | $1 | Jun 22, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?No | buy | 13.82 | $0.710 | $9.81 | Mar 29, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31?No | sell | 10.79 | $0.909 | $9.81 | Mar 29, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31?No | buy | 10.8 | $0.880 | $9.5 | Mar 23, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?No | sell | 17.77 | $0.530 | $9.42 | Mar 23, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?No | buy | 17.78 | $0.450 | $8 | Feb 14, 2025 |
 Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14?No | buy | 7.69 | $0.260 | $2 | Feb 14, 2025 |
Lifetime dollar volume the wallet has traded in the same snapshot. Profit read next to volume shows how much return each traded dollar earned.
Value of the wallet's open positions at the profile observation, priced at current marks. Zero can mean the wallet holds nothing open, or that no open value was observed.
Share of resolved positions that closed in profit within the available sample. A high win rate with a small profit usually means many small wins and a few large losses.
Realized winning markets summed against realized losing markets. The split shows whether profit came from many small wins or from a few big calls.
Total losses as a share of total gains in the available sample. Lower means less of the profit was given back; a value above 100% means the wallet lost more than it won.
Distinct markets the wallet has traded, and how many of its positions have resolved. Breadth tells you whether a record is one lucky call or a habit.
How many provider fill rows this view loaded and when the snapshot was taken. Vultax stamps every figure with its observation time instead of presenting an old number as live.