Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 4.2% on 14 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 14 Jun 2025 to 3 Jul 2025, the highest close was 4.2% on 14 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jul 2025. $18.14M traded over the market's life.
536 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 4, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 14 Jun 2025 – 3 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2025 | 4.2% |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| liliyg | Yes | 255.42K |
| Balvin | Yes | 96.77K |
| choosinglosses | Yes | 80K |
| TheBigBigWinWin | Yes | 79.04K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-united-states-officially-declare-war-on-iran-before-july
| HMBBBB | Yes | 63.97K |
| Luxurymiami | Yes | 57.47K |
| Lean-Reduction | Yes | 46.89K |
| Cracker99 | Yes | 43.99K |
| asdadasdada | Yes | 41.14K |
| Fesfouss | Yes | 40K |
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