Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will o3-mini be better than DeepSeek before March?No | buy | 20 | $0.150 | $3 | Feb 2, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 7.14 |
| $0.280 |
| $2 |
| Jan 28, 2025 |
 X relaunches Vine before July?No | buy | 10 | $0.550 | $5.5 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?No | buy | 10 | $0.470 | $4.7 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced before May?No | buy | 10 | $0.380 | $3.8 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.218 | $4.36 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July?No | buy | 40 | $0.820 | $32.8 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?No | sell | 40 | $0.110 | $4.4 | Jan 28, 2025 |
| Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?No | buy | 40 | $0.120 | $4.8 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.600 | $12 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 Trump positive favorability on February 1?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.340 | $3.4 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?No | buy | 89.29 | $0.840 | $75 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | sell | 70 | $0.212 | $14.84 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 54.2 | $0.369 | $20 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.250 | $10 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 43.84 | $0.228 | $10 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 25.13 | $0.199 | $5 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 33.4 | $0.599 | $20 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Trump issue less than 100 executive orders in first week?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.740 | $7.4 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump issue 50-74 executive orders in his first week?Yes | buy | 51.55 | $0.097 | $5 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 25.18 | $0.199 | $5 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day?No | buy | 384.62 | $0.013 | $5 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day?Yes | sell | 84.33 | $0.761 | $64.18 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day?Yes | buy | 84.33 | $0.830 | $70 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?No | sell | 74.86 | $0.200 | $14.97 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 50.84 | $0.138 | $7 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 25.25 | $0.198 | $5 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.176 | $8.8 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Trump transgender executive order on Day 1?No | sell | 25 | $0.150 | $3.75 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?Yes | buy | 57.58 | $0.087 | $5 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 108.6 | $0.092 | $10 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.500 | $10 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?Yes | sell | 14.7 | $0.660 | $9.7 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day?No | sell | 67.36 | $0.030 | $2.02 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | sell | 89.54 | $0.020 | $1.79 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day?No | sell | 20.14 | $0.012 | $0.24 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 32.05 | $0.312 | $10 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No | sell | 33.11 | $0.688 | $22.78 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 54.43 | $0.367 | $20 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 57.49 | $0.348 | $20 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No | sell | 32 | $0.704 | $22.53 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No | sell | 70 | $0.842 | $58.94 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No | buy | 77.2 | $0.907 | $70 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No | buy | 57.91 | $0.863 | $50 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.060 | $5 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?No | buy | 250 | $0.200 | $50 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?No | buy | 45.45 | $0.220 | $10 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day?Yes | buy | 247.41 | $0.020 | $5 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Will $MELANIA FDV be less than $1b on Friday?Yes | buy | 43.31 | $0.231 | $10 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will $MELANIA FDV be $1-3b on Friday?Yes | buy | 47.62 | $0.210 | $10 | Jan 20, 2025 |