Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 17 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 104 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 83.5% on 21 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 52% on 25 Mar 2025. $59.04K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 104 points, 17 Jan 2025 – 30 Apr 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2025 | 27.5% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sm0kehead | Yes | 134.33 |
| Coral Quasar AAC1 | No | 44 |
| OrchidIrony | Yes | 34.48 |
On January 14, Donald Trump announced that he would create an "External Revenue Service" tasked with collecting tariffs and other forms of revenue from foreign nations. You can read more about that here: https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-tax-revenues-tariffs-eef2ab6930a8672a418af27f61efaed8 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump as President of the United States signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of creating an External Revenue Service. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. The title of such an agency may vary, however any agency established with the express purpose of collecting tariffs and/or other forms of revenue from foreign nations will count toward a "Yes" resolution. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-external-revenue-service-in-first-100-days
| Yes |
| 29.41 |
| Polly420 | Yes | 25.67 |
| Youreright | Yes | 22.39 |
| PenguPrime | Yes | 20 |
| dnbmokus | Yes | 17.54 |
| BoeJiden420 | Yes | 13.89 |
| Pocokomu | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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