Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 36.5% on 27 Nov 2024. Before it settled, the high was 43% on 25 Dec 2024 and the low 0.3% on 2 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 4.5% on 21 Jan 2025. $2.79M traded over the market's life.
116 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 5, 10:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 27 Nov 2024 – 4 Feb 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2024 | 36.5% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| YourPresident | Yes | 106.34K |
| Spirited-Waist | Yes | 46.19K |
| Azure Falcon 77D5 | Yes | 20K |
| MelonTusk | Yes | 16.74K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On November 25, Donald Trump announced that he would "sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States". (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 25% or greater tariff on imports into the United States from Mexico or Canada by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 25% or greater tariff on imports into the United States from Mexico or Canada is enacted. If a tariff is instituted on Mexico but not Canada, or on Canada but not Mexico, it will still qualify. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada
| jofojfofjf | Yes | 5.21K |
| Tamadosun | Yes | 3.14K |
| PeterinRome | Yes | 3K |
| Rmx | Yes | 2.34K |
| conleymxst | Yes | 1.91K |
| Virtual-Diamond | Yes | 1.75K |
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