What is the “Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukrainian forces maintain control of any part of the Kursk Oblast of Russia, through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Ukrainian forces at any point no longer control any territory in the Kursk Oblast, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Control is defined as Ukrainian forces being present and actively holding territory in the Kursk Oblast. The primary resolution source for this market will be maps and reports published by the Institute for the Study of War (htt…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

149 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 2, 8:26 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-hold-kursk-through-2024) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

Market referencewill-ukraine-hold-kursk-through-2024Updated Jan 2, 2025 UTC

Resolved

Yes · settled Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$2.6M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jan 2, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 2, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

149

Wallets

149

Top 10 share

90%

Yes / No shares

1.18K / 133.23K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

325

Loaded notional

$140.14K

Yes sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

126

Move

+57 pts

Range

42.5% - 99.9%

Aug 29, 12:00 AM UTC to Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
PePeBatista	No	41.76K	26.2%	$41.76K
pulica	No	26.53K	31.9%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukrainian forces maintain control of any part of the Kursk Oblast of Russia, through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Ukrainian forces at any point no longer control any territory in the Kursk Oblast, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Control is defined as Ukrainian forces being present and actively holding territory in the Kursk Oblast. The primary resolution source for this market will be maps and reports published by the Institute for the Study of War (htt…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

PePeBatista

41.76K

26.2%

$41.76K

pulica

26.53K

31.9%

Trader	Current holding value
striga	$468.94
vezyn4eg	$162.85
artmt	$147.06
Hidden008	$146.6
Marook	$75.76
nastrudomas	$35.71
TheOG	$28.57
sillybomb	$17
alfexy	$15.63
Lau.Dtr	$13.98
Self-Assured-Farrow	$12
SYY	$10.32