Analytics
Yes is at 88.5%, up 50 points from 39% when the market opened on 18 Aug 2026.
The high was 92% on 9 Oct 2026 and the low 10.5% on 16 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 81%; a month ago, 35%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 54% on 1 Oct 2026.
No release by November 1 is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?”, ahead of October 12–October 18 at 5.5%.
$20.45K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $135.27K since listing. The order book holds $17.8K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $7.74K bought Yes and $3.17K bought No; the largest was a $1.7K sell of Yes at 77.6¢.
The largest Yes position is George.Smiley with 17.2K shares; the largest No position is qmmar with 9.8K. Ten wallets hold 79.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 24 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 5:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 54 points · 18 Aug 2026 – 9 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 39.0% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 88.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| George.Smiley | Yes | 17.2K |
| qmmar | No | 9.77K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 9.39K |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-next-google-gemini-pro-model-be-released-20260817144359068
| gambler925 |
| Yes |
| 4.73K |
| anoin123 | Yes | 4.6K |
| balthazar | No | 4.46K |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 2.7K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 2.55K |
| rewardbots | No | 2.53K |
| Somber-Ice | Yes | 974.83 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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