Analytics
Yes is at 76.5%, up 32 points from 44.5% when the market opened on 9 Jul 2026.
Across the 108 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 76.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 36.5% on 11 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 61%; a month before, 72.5%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 72% on 2 Sep 2026.
6 is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?”, ahead of 7 at 18.5%.
$447.12 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $30.08K since listing. The order book holds $12.09K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5.39K bought Yes and $1.1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is musicenthusiast with 1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.2K. Ten wallets hold 83% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 108 points, 9 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | 44.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 76.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.22K |
| musicenthusiast | Yes | 1K |
| clazzy1 | Yes | 820.06 |
This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-uk-parliamentary-by-elections-in-2026-20260708164636512
| spacegliderr |
| Yes |
| 456.84 |
| cambridgeisaac | Yes | 371.94 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 318.56 |
| haouibao | Yes | 210 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 160 |
| johnashbough | No | 125.15 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 115 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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