Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 14 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 126 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 19 Mar 2026, the highest close was 27% on 15 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 27% on 15 Nov 2025.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 11:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 126 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 19 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 8.5% |
| 19 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 9.95K |
| ACara | Yes | 2.8K |
| AlxMxMn | Yes | 1.22K |
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026
| Cassiopeian | Yes | 1.22K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 533.1 |
| zhxx12345 | Yes | 500 |
| Anon321321 | Yes | 181 |
| Perfect-Neighbourhood | Yes | 160.58 |
| fsociety | Yes | 142.86 |
| ghorrock | Yes | 136 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
