What is the “Will the U.S. invade Iran before July?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the U.S. invade Iran before July? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 1 Jul 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

74 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-july) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will the U.S. invade Iran before July?

Market referencewill-the-us-invade-iran-before-julyUpdated Jul 2, 2025 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Jul 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.0M

Resolved

Settled

Jul 1, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jul 5, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jul 2, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

77%

Yes / No shares

82.72K / 50.19

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

414

Loaded notional

$98.17K

No sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jul 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-1.3 pts

Range

0.1% - 4.1%

Jun 19, 12:00 AM UTC to Jul 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
backflip	Yes	33.97K	3.2%	$33.97K
Henri03	Yes	5.92K	4.3%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will the U.S. invade Iran before July?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will the U.S. invade Iran before July? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 1 Jul 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

backflip

Yes

33.97K

3.2%

$33.97K

Henri03

Yes

5.92K

4.3%

Trader	Current holding value
NetSet	$40
jamos737	$5.05
Artanisdev	$3.11
SyazaDomo	$1.03
smksignals	$1.01
backflip	$0
Henri03	$0
Tueioeiezeueue	$0
Frb98mf	$0
Ceebee	$0
cryptolooser	$0
Ivoivo	$0