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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Yes | buy | 510 | $0.350 | $178.5 | May 9, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 268.83 |
| $0.023 |
| $6.18 |
| Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 535.55 | $0.024 | $12.85 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.025 | $0.16 | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 766.43 | $0.025 | $19.16 | Feb 6, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?Yes | sell | 931.87 | $0.102 | $95.47 | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.530 | $106 | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.470 | $47 | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.480 | $96 | Oct 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?Yes | buy | 490 | $0.790 | $387.1 | Oct 21, 2025 |
 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Yes | sell | 751.59 | $0.160 | $120.25 | Oct 14, 2025 |
 US x China tariff agreement by November 10?No | buy | 930.89 | $0.170 | $158.25 | Oct 13, 2025 |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Yes | buy | 592.5 | $0.120 | $71.1 | Oct 12, 2025 |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Yes | buy | 1.18K | $0.100 | $117.55 | Oct 12, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced by September 30?No | sell | 150 | $0.953 | $142.9 | Sep 28, 2025 |
| TikTok sale announced by September 30?No | buy | 604.22 | $0.690 | $416.91 | Sep 17, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 453.16 | $0.920 | $416.91 | Sep 17, 2025 |
| TikTok sale announced by September 30?No | buy | 597.65 | $0.690 | $412.38 | Sep 17, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Yes | sell | 1.16K | $0.260 | $301.14 | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 13.2 | $0.780 | $10.3 | Aug 23, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 236.79 | $0.790 | $187.06 | Aug 22, 2025 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?Yes | sell | 922 | $0.190 | $175.18 | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Yes | buy | 132.46 | $0.600 | $79.48 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Yes | buy | 11 | $0.600 | $6.6 | Aug 19, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | sell | 287 | $0.560 | $160.72 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Yes | buy | 45.87 | $0.630 | $28.9 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | sell | 249.98 | $0.601 | $150.24 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | sell | 167.53 | $0.608 | $101.86 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?Yes | sell | 383.34 | $0.180 | $69 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | buy | 846.43 | $0.654 | $553.57 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.220 | $44 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?Yes | buy | 1.01K | $0.220 | $221.63 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.35K | $0.760 | $1.03K | Aug 10, 2025 |
 Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?No | buy | 403 | $0.170 | $68.51 | Aug 4, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.23K | $0.280 | $344.42 | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?No | buy | 369.62 | $0.170 | $62.84 | Aug 3, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?No | buy | 453.18 | $0.680 | $308.16 | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?No | buy | 703.47 | $0.300 | $211.04 | Jul 19, 2025 |
 Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?Yes | sell | 74.96 | $0.360 | $26.99 | Jul 16, 2025 |
 US x Iran ceasefire before August?Yes | sell | 811.2 | $0.011 | $9.31 | Jul 16, 2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before August?Yes | sell | 244.05 | $0.046 | $11.18 | Jul 14, 2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before August?Yes | sell | 241.76 | $0.052 | $12.67 | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.320 | $160 | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?No | sell | 723.24 | $0.710 | $513.5 | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | sell | 248.86 | $0.930 | $231.44 | Jul 4, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | buy | 248.86 | $0.817 | $203.32 | Jul 1, 2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before August?Yes | buy | 47 | $0.220 | $10.34 | Jun 26, 2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before August?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.220 | $110 | Jun 26, 2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before August?Yes | buy | 584.2 | $0.150 | $87.63 | Jun 25, 2025 |
 Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?Yes | sell | 619.6 | $0.720 | $446.11 | Jun 25, 2025 |