Analytics
Yes is at 2.1%, down 46 points from 48% when the market opened on 19 Nov 2025.
Across the 324 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 22 Nov 2025 and the lowest 1.7% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.7%; a month before, 1.9%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 33.5% on 27 Nov 2025.
It is one of 20 markets under “What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?”.
$1.29K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $43.8K since listing. The order book holds $60.26K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $993.17 bought Yes and $7.65K bought No; the largest was a $1.32K buy of No at 96.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Joebama with 2.4K shares; the largest No position is DEGENKHAN with 2K. Ten wallets hold 89.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 62 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 324 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2025 | 48.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Joebama | Yes | 2.41K |
| DEGENKHAN | No | 1.98K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027
7 more markets, none above 2.2%.
| No |
| 1.55K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 731.31 |
| Khameneii | Yes | 251 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 226.88 |
| ma99 | Yes | 100 |
| cabbag | No | 100 |
| Gaujmalietis | No | 99.98 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 89.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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