Analytics
Yes is at 5.3%, down 44 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 25 Feb 2026.
The high was 75.5% on 13 May 2026 and the low 2.3% on 16 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 7.3%; a month ago, 2.3%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 21.5% on 11 Aug 2026.
It is one of 14 markets under “Which bills will become law in 2026?”.
$917.69 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $197.28, with a 6.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 47 trades, $17.42 bought Yes and $373.05 bought No.
The largest Yes position is lievre with 176 shares; the largest No position is Slow-Exhibit with 100. Ten wallets hold 83.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 78 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 10:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 205 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 49.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lievre | Yes | 175.83 |
| Slow-Exhibit | No | 100 |
| m33zy | No | 92 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the S. 1837 (119th) — “DEFIANCE Act of 2025.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026
2 more markets, none above 2.5%.
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 58.12 |
| Solar Ledger 05AA | No | 48 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 37.85 |
| alpheclabs | No | 35.16 |
| Hoodedslinky8 | No | 25.83 |
| macrosteaks | No | 25 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 21.36 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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