Analytics
Yes is at 35%, down 16 points from 50.5% when the market opened on 25 Feb 2026.
Across the 228 daily closes on record from 25 Feb 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61% on 19 Apr 2026 and the lowest 19.5% on 26 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 31%; a month before, 30.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 60% on 23 Apr 2026.
It is one of 14 markets under “Which bills will become law in 2026?”.
$202.57 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.28K since listing. The order book holds $21.51K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 213 trades, $606.07 bought Yes and $1.14K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 0xf27dc with 281 shares; the largest No position is whispercatalyst with 160. Ten wallets hold 94% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 2:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 228 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 50.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 35.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xf27dc | Yes | 281.44 |
| AJSV | Yes | 228.61 |
| whispercatalyst | No | 159.6 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 3447 (119th) — “Chip Security Act.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026
2 more markets, none above 3.8%.
| SmartBoyBilly |
| No |
| 99.99 |
| bittersahu | No | 98.83 |
| macrosteaks | No | 81.07 |
| bananabreakfast | No | 68.05 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 53.11 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 53 |
| JoGold | No | 49 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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