Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 17 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 205 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2026 to 31 Aug 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12.5% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 6.5% on 18 Jan 2026. $5.82K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 205 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 31 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 12.5% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.17K |
| Crazy-Hybridization | Yes | 332.61 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 300 |
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 220 |
| yuf8f | Yes | 191.31 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| xlefgerx | Yes | 146.02 |
| DavidDyer3788 | Yes | 143 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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