Analytics
Yes is at 11.2%, down 8.3 points from 19.5% when the market opened on 17 Jan 2026.
Across the 268 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (17 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 19.5% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 17 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.9%; a month before, 8%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 15.6% on 8 Aug 2026.
120-139 ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “How many SpaceX launches in 2026?”. 140-159 leads at 72.5%; 180-199 is at 5.5%.
$63.15 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.59K since listing. The order book holds $970.14, with a 2.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 290 trades, $153.32 bought Yes and $2.44K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 387411007415611814092217897387 with 327 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.2K. Ten wallets hold 76.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 268 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 19.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 11.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.17K |
| 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes | 327.37 |
| pingentfan1 | Yes | 241.76 |
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 215 |
| thursdays | Yes | 199.42 |
| k1ngslayer | Yes | 178.81 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 170.88 |
| BSS37 | Yes | 163.74 |
| FishHunter | Yes | 134.19 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 125 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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