Analytics
Yes is at 2.1%, down 34 points from 36.5% when the market opened on 17 Jan 2026.
The high was 60% on 25 Jan 2026 and the low 1.1% on 4 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.1%; a month ago, 2.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 54.5% on 21 Jan 2026.
200 or more ranks fourth of the 6 outcomes in “How many SpaceX launches in 2026?”. 140-159 leads at 78.3%; 120-139 is at 8.7%.
$107.15K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.59K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $179.21 bought Yes and $21.85K bought No; the largest was a $1.54K buy of No at 86.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Coral Vector 08BD with 650 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.1K. Ten wallets hold 62.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 75 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 18, 10:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 248 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 18 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 36.5% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.14K |
| Coral Vector 08BD | Yes | 649.99 |
| JeffreyCalhoun1112 | No | 580 |
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026
| xlefgerx | Yes | 554.85 |
| 42m | Yes | 511.54 |
| JenniferJones8193 | Yes | 457 |
| BetterFish | No | 407.76 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 323.31 |
| PatrickMoore4409 | No | 301 |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 250 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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