Analytics
Yes is at 0.8%, down 17 points from 18% when the market opened on 17 Jan 2026.
The high was 24.3% on 31 Jan 2026 and the low 0.3% on 27 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 0.9%; a month ago, 1%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 8.2% on 1 Feb 2026.
100-119 ranks sixth of the 6 outcomes in “How many SpaceX launches in 2026?”. 140-159 leads at 70.2%; 120-139 is at 9.3%.
$3.63K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.38K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 244 trades, $26.07 bought Yes and $1.99K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xlefgerx with 619 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.1K. Ten wallets hold 80.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 73 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 6:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 244 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 20 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 18.0% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 0.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.14K |
| xlefgerx | Yes | 618.75 |
| balthazar | Yes | 288.82 |
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026
| xiaoaojiang |
| Yes |
| 220 |
| AJSV | Yes | 201.6 |
| ma99 | Yes | 175.46 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 173.72 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 149.99 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 117.67 |
| winpro | Yes | 100.15 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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