Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?

Across the 275 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64.5% on 29 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.4% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.1%; a month before, 6%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 31.5% on 26 Jun 2026.

160-179 ranks fifth of the 5 outcomes in “How many SpaceX launches in 2026?”. 140-159 leads at 75.9%; 120-139 is at 14.2%.

$38.48 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $102.67K since listing. The order book holds $2.15K, with a 1.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.94K bought Yes and $12.66K bought No; the largest was a $1.73K buy of No at 69.0¢.

The largest Yes position is tja with 3.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.2K. Ten wallets hold 78% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.