Analytics
Yes is at 6.3%, down 29 points from 35.5% when the market opened on 31 Jan 2026.
Across the 244 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48% on 2 Mar 2026 and the lowest 2.3% on 3 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.2%; a month before, 3.4%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 48% on 2 Mar 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?”.
$40 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $26.15K since listing. The order book holds $4.93K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Flamboyant-Warming with 781 shares; the largest No position is aviato with 539. Ten wallets hold 77.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 244 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 35.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 8.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 780.91 |
| aviato | No | 538.98 |
| tourists | No | 442.89 |
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-kind-of-product-will-openai-announce-in-2026
| LornaPredicts |
| Yes |
| 290.5 |
| ooops | No | 235.25 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 210.48 |
| shiifoo | No | 196.78 |
| Pesky-Cranberry | No | 149.95 |
| zhuanyidianjiuhao | Yes | 140.98 |
| Flamboyant-Downforce-Trash | No | 94.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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