Analytics
Yes is at 31.5%, down 19 points from 50% when the market opened on 13 Aug 2026.
Across the 71 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 74.5% on 16 Aug 2026 and the lowest 14% on 5 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 22.5%; a month before, 24%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 50.5% on 17 Aug 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?”.
$87.13 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $141.14K since listing. The order book holds $23.84K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.08K bought Yes and $41.92K bought No; the largest was a $12.19K buy of No at 82.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Turbulent-Decline-Router with 811 shares; the largest No position is ArmageddonRewardsBilly with 2.7K. Ten wallets hold 81.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 13 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 31.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 2.67K |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 810.52 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 610.45 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-a-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-by-december-31-20260812153824803
12 more markets, none above 15.6%.
| BikesAreTheBikes | Yes | 359.71 |
| acc42020 | Yes | 294.06 |
| smellyEllie | Yes | 248 |
| anoin123 | Yes | 175.99 |
| JokerTheClown | No | 150 |
| ghorrock | Yes | 137.58 |
| kanhaoleaha | No | 112 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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