Analytics
Yes is at 49%, up 23 points from 26% when the market opened on 26 Aug 2026.
Across the 60 daily closes on record from 26 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67% on 30 Sep 2026 and the lowest 26% on 26 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 52.5%; a month before, 30%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 67% on 30 Sep 2026.
↓ $2.5 is the favourite of the 8 outcomes in “What price will Lighter hit in 2026?”, ahead of ↑ $6 at 21.5%.
$293.75 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.88K since listing. The order book holds $8.54K, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Vagabund97 with 335 shares; the largest No position is gydmasg with 656. Ten wallets hold 89.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 26 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | 26.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 49.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gydmasg | No | 656.1 |
| Vagabund97 | Yes | 335.19 |
| Liquidifier | Yes | 328 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Lighter LIT/USDC trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-lighter-hit-before-2027
| vonhalen |
| Yes |
| 238.8 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 225.14 |
| Fihdrzgdd | No | 73.42 |
| DroolingBear | Yes | 43.87 |
| plsnothackme | Yes | 39.21 |
| Maxima | Yes | 21.96 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 21.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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