Analytics
Yes is at 10.7%, down 20 points from 30.5% when the market opened on 31 Dec 2025.
Across the 286 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47.9% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 15 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8%; a month before, 38.5%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 45.5% on 7 Sep 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “What price will Lighter hit in 2026?”.
$106.63K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $17.64K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is flaneur22 with 2K shares; the largest No position is amis with 3.4K. Ten wallets hold 62.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 286 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 30.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 10.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| amis | No | 3.38K |
| flaneur22 | Yes | 2.02K |
| keysersoze22 | Yes | 1.94K |
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) between December 30, 2025, 14:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “High” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Lighter LIT/USDC price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-lighter-hit-before-2027
| CauchyBraids |
| Yes |
| 1.56K |
| 115 | Yes | 1.22K |
| fbb0226 | No | 1.2K |
| OranG3cluB | Yes | 1K |
| lexaman.eth | No | 900 |
| wanr45 | Yes | 864.4 |
| BetterHold | No | 813.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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