Analytics
Yes is at 26%, down 15 points from 40.5% when the market opened on 31 Dec 2025.
Across the 272 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 79.5% on 19 Sep 2026 and the lowest 7% on 29 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 32%; a month before, 68.5%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 54.5% on 4 Sep 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “What price will Lighter hit in 2026?”.
$40 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $87.87K since listing. The order book holds $1.67K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.51K bought Yes and $4.68K bought No; the largest was a $3.03K buy of Yes at 75.0¢.
The largest Yes position is CauchyBraids with 8.6K shares; the largest No position is mommydualipa with 4K. Ten wallets hold 68.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 8:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 272 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 40.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 27.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CauchyBraids | Yes | 8.58K |
| mommydualipa | No | 4K |
| gothmommy69 | No | 4K |
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) between December 30, 2025, 14:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “High” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Lighter LIT/USDC price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-lighter-hit-before-2027
| VibeyQuant |
| No |
| 3.61K |
| flaneur22 | Yes | 2.22K |
| keysersoze22 | Yes | 1.96K |
| XieGuangKun | No | 1.68K |
| cypheonz | Yes | 1.58K |
| alanhutton | No | 1.39K |
| Eugene22 | Yes | 1.28K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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