Analytics
Yes is at 10.5%, down 42 points from 52% when the market opened on 19 Mar 2026.
Across the 200 daily closes on record from 19 Mar 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 62.5% on 3 May 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 2 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11%; a month before, 9%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 30.5% on 20 Mar 2026.
$12.5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $128.09K since listing. The order book holds $15.96K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.66K bought Yes and $14.05K bought No; the largest was a $2.77K sell of No at 91.6¢.
The largest Yes position is Threadbare-Signal with 1K shares; the largest No position is MEPP with 2.8K. Ten wallets hold 46.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 200 points, 19 Mar 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Mar 2026 | 52.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MEPP | No | 2.8K |
| justme003 | No | 1.17K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 1.03K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31
| Cheery-Alert |
| No |
| 877.1 |
| jjams | Yes | 833.33 |
| kohalacoastgabe | Yes | 831.6 |
| goatboss | Yes | 797.6 |
| katbot | No | 783.96 |
| Drunken-Mentat | No | 760.94 |
| Judicious-Electricity | Yes | 706.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
